How would you evaluate whether a free trial is converting at the right rate?

Model answerTrial conversion rate is meaningless without context. Before anything else, I'd check acquisition quality — if we're bringing in misaligned users, no amount of activation work will fix conversion. Then the right question is: among users who experienced the core value of the product during the trial, what's the conversion rate? If your overall conversion is 8% but users who completed a key action convert at 40%, the problem isn't the trial — it's that only 20% of trial users reach the value moment. I'd focus energy on activating more trial users, not on conversion nudges at the end. Referral is intentionally excluded here — it tells you whether users love the product enough to share it, but it can't tell you why conversion is low or what to fix. It's a signal that follows a healthy trial, not a diagnostic tool for a broken one.